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La religione che cresce di più

Questo articolo analizza l'affermazione che l'Islam è la __"religione che cresce di più (fastest growing religion)"__ nel mondo (in the world).

Introduzione

Alcuni hanno affermato che l'Islam è la religione che cresce di più al mondo__. Come prova, essi presentano abitualmente_ affermazioni non verificabili e _citazioni dei media senza alcuna base__. Apparentemente l'ABC News ha affermato che __"Contano già più di un miliardo, ma l'Islam è la religione più in crescita nel mondo"__, una citazione di cui non si trova alcuna traccia nella fonte__. Anche la CNN World News affermò che "l'Islam cresce rapidamente e conquista convertiti nel mondo Occidentale", un'affermazione che essi fallirono nel portare alcuna prova___. Qui esaminiamo i veri dati disponibili per l'Islam per vedere se alcune di queste affermazioni sono basate sui fatti.

Analisi

Crescita dell'Islam

Universalmente/Globalmente

Secondo il "Futuro della Popolazione Musulmana Mondiale," pubblicato nel Gennaio del 2011 dal Pew Forum, sezione della Religione & Vita Pubblica, la crescita e __il futuro incremento__(and anticipated future growth) dell'Islam è principalmente dovuto al "loro relativamente elevato tasso di nascite___ (relatively high birth rate), il grande numero di Musulmani in età fertile, e all'aumento della aspettativa di vita nei paesi a maggioranza musulmana" mentre le conversioni giocano un piccolo ruolo nell'incremento grazie ai dati disponibili che suggeriscono che l'"Islam perde tanti seguaci per conversioni quanti i suoi guadagni."___[1][2]

Nel 2006, i paesi a maggioranza Musulmana avevano un rateo di crescita demografica medio di 1.8% per anno (quando ponderate dalla percentuale di Musulmani e dimensione della popolazione)__.[3] Questo è comparato con il rateo di crescita della popolazione del 1.12% per anno [4], e secondo l'Enciclopedia Mondiale Cristiana,tra il 1990 e il 2000, l'Islam ricevette circa 865,558 convertiti ogni anno. Questo viene comparato ai circa 2,883,011 di convertiti all'anno per il Cristianesimo durante lo stesso periodo.[5]

Africa

I Musulmani precedentemente prevalevano sui Cristiani nell' Africa sub-Sahariana. Tuttavia, uno studio pubblicato in Aprile nel 2010 dal Pew Forum sulla Religione & la Vita Pubblica ha evidenziato che i Cristiani ora prevalgono sui Musulmani di 2 su 1,__ rendendo l'Islam una fede minoritaria.[6][7]

Il numero di aderenti al Cristianesimo nell'Africa sub-Sahariana crebbe da poco meno di 9 milioni nel 1910 a 516 milioni al giorno d'oggi, un incremento di 60 volte che eclissa la crescita dell'Islam.[8]

America

Contrariamente a ciò che viene spesso rivendicato, l'Islam non è la religione che cresce più velocemente negli United States.__ Qui ci sono le prove:__

  • I sondaggi dell'ARIS[9] dimostra che tra il 1990 e il 2000 la percentuale di ricambio dell'Islam era +109%. La percentuale di ricambio per i Nonreligiosi/Secolari (+110%), Religione Nativo Americana (+119%), Buddismo (+170%), Baha'i (+200%), Induismo (+237%), Religioni New Age (+240%), Sikhismo (+338%) e Deismo (+717%) erano tutte più elevate.
  • L'Indagine per l'Identificazione Religiosa degli Americani__ diede ai gruppi Non-Religiosi l'aumento più marcato in termine di numeri assoluti__ - da 14,300,000 (8.4% della popolazione) a 29,400,000 (14.1% della popolazione) per il periodo tra il 1990 e il 2001 negli USA.[10][11] Inoltre, gli Americani senza religione erano il segmento più crescente dal 2001 al 2008._______[12]
  • Secondo il Centro Risorse dell'Orientamento Culturale,[13] il 60% di tutti i rifugiati ammessi negli Stati Uniti provengono da paesi a maggioranza Musulmana. Verosimilmente, un Pew report pubblicato nel Gennaio del 2011 trovò che "Circa i due-terzi dei Musulmani negli U.S.A. al giorno d'oggi (64.5%) sono immigrati di prima generazione (nati all'estero)".[14]
  • Contrariamente alle cifre spesso quotate fornite dal CAIR e malgrado la grande influenza dei rifugiati Musulmani, un sondaggio del Pew institute condotto nell'ottobre 2009 risultò che la stima della popolazione Musulmana negli Stati Uniti era di soli 2.454 milioni.[15] Percentage-wise, Islam represents only 0.8 percent of the United States' religious make-up. About a third of what had previously been claimed and widely accepted by many apologists and media outlets.
  • Secondo le ricerche svolte dal rispettabile Dr. Ilyas Ba-Yunus (1932 - 2007), Musulmano statunitense nato in Pakistan__,[16][17] il 75% dei nuovi convertiti Musulmani negli Stati Uniti lasciano l'Islam entro pochi anni.__[18]
  • Secondo Ahmed Nassef, co-fondatore ed editore in capo di MuslimWakeUp.com, meno del 7 percento dei Musulmani statunitensi attendono alle moschee regolarmente, rispetto al 38 percento degli statunitensi Cristiani che vanno in chiesa settimanalmente.[19]

Cina

L'Islam e il Cristianesimo entrarono entrambe in Cina durante il 7th secolo___,[20] e affermazioni non supportate da delle fonti unreferenced claims have been made of around 100 million Muslims in China. However, most reliable estimates put the figures at 20 to 30 million Muslims (1.5% to 2% of the population).[21][22][23][24]

Similarly, some Christian organizations have claimed up to 130 million Christians in China. However, most reliable estimates range from 40 million (3% of the total population) to 54 million (4%),[24][25][26][27] meaning the growth of Christianity in China is almost double that of Islam.

Europe

A United Nations' survey showed that between 1989 and 1998, Europe's Muslim population grew by more than 100 percent, due mainly to the effects of immigration from Muslim countries. Ontario Consultants on Religious Tolerance have an unsourced claim of 2.9 percent per year. And according to a Pew report published in January 2011, the future growth of Islam in Europe will be "driven primarily by continued migration."[14]

According to data from the extensive 2010 European Social Survey (ESS), Muslims immigrants who have lived less than a year in Europe regularly go to the mosque. But after they have lived more than a year in their new homeland, the figure drops to 48.8%. More than half rarely or never go to the mosque to pray.[28]

In the Netherlands, mosque attendance is actually dropping faster than church attendance. In 1998, 47 percent of Muslims would attend mosque at least once a month. This figure fell by 12 percent in 2008 to only 35 percent. Whilst church attendance for Catholics fell by only 8 percent, and church attendance amongst Protestants showed no change, remaining at 63 percent.[29]

United Kingdom

It has been estimated that during 2001 - 2011, about 100,000 people converted to Islam in the United Kingdom, but 75 percent of these converts quickly left Islam, during this period.[30] On the whole, there are about 200,000 apostates from Islam living in the UK, doubling the number that have converted.[31]

Similarly to the rest of Europe,[14] the growth of Islam in the UK is primarily due to higher birthrates among Muslims (27 percent of Muslim families have three or more dependent children, compared with 14 percent of Sikh, 8 percent of Hindu, and 7 percent of Christian families)[32] and immigration (54 percent of all UK Muslims are foreign born).[33]

A NOP poll of British Muslims commissioned by Channel 4 also found that 48% of Muslims never attend a mosque, with another 6% only attending for special occasions.[34]

Russia

There is a wide spread belief that there are around 20 million Russian Muslims and that vast amounts of Russians are converting to Islam. However, there are only about 7 to 9 million Muslims in Russia and less than 3,000 ethnic Russians have converted to Islam within the last fifteen years.

For the same period almost 2 million ethnic Muslims have become Orthodox Christians. Over 400 Russian Orthodox clergy belong to traditionally Muslim ethnic groups, 20 percent of Tatars are Christian, and 70 percent of interfaith marriages result in the Muslim spouse conversion to Christianity.[35]

Other Factors to Consider

Worth noting is the fact that apostates will rarely advertise leaving Islam due to the death sentence it imposes on its followers, and that most Islamic countries do not acknowledge conversions out of Islam.

Systematic persecution of religious minorities has been documented in almost every Muslim majority country, leading to some converts to Islam being coerced or forced into their conversion.

For example, following the 2010 murder of a leading Muslim politician who called for modifications to Pakistan’s blasphemy law, it had been reported that at least 20 Pakistani Christians were converting to Islam each week out of fear.[36] Also according to the Society for the Protection of the Rights of the Child (SPARC), there were as many as 2,000 women and girls who were forcibly converted in 2011 to Islam through rape, torture and kidnappings in Pakistan.[37]

This is not limited to Muslim-majority countries. In the United Kingdom, it was reported in 2007 that police were working with universities to clamp down on "aggressive conversions" to Islam, during which vulnerable teenage girls are beaten up by Muslims and forced to abandon university courses.[38][39]

Conclusion

All the actual data available reveals that Islam is neither the fastest growing religion by number of adherents or the fastest growing religion by percentage-increase.

The growing number of Muslims in the world is due primarily to the higher than average birth-rates, and consequent population growths of Muslim countries and communities. And their growing presence in non-Muslim societies such as Europe and the Americas is overwhelmingly due to immigration.

Furthermore, converts to Islam are vastly outnumbered by those who choose to leave the religion and embrace another faith or worldview. And the majority of converts that Islam does manage to attract, decide to leave within the first few years of practicing it.

Finally, even if Islam were to be the fastest growing religion in the world, it would be an Argumentum ad populum to claim that this makes it the correct religion.

This page is featured in the core article, Islam and Propaganda which serves as a starting point for anyone wishing to learn more about this topic
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See Also

  • Converts - A hub page that leads to other articles related to Converts

Translations

  • A version of this page is also available in the following languages: Bulgarian. For additional languages, see the sidebar on the left.

External Links

References

  1. Richard Allen Greene - World Muslim population doubling, report projects - CNN News, January 27, 2011
  2. "... Le poche informazioni disponibili suggeriscono che non ci sono sostanziali aumenti o perdite nel numero dei musulmani attraverso le conversioni nel globo; il numero di persone che diventano Musulmani attraverso le conversioni sembrano abbastanza uguali al numero di Musulmani che abbandonano la loro fede. Di conseguenza, questo rapporto non include nessuna stima futura del rateo di conversioni come un fattore diretto nelle proiezioni dell'aumento della popolazione Musulmana." - The Future of the Global Muslim Population, Related Factors: Conversion, Pew Research Center, January 27, 2011
  3. Averaging of individual country figures from CIA factbook
  4. CIA Factbook
  5. Global statistics for all religions: 2001 AD. www.bible.ca. Accessed 2006-12-26.
  6. Christians now outnumber Muslims in sub-Saharan Africa by 2 to 1 - Catholic Culture, April 19, 2010
  7. Tolerance and Tension: Islam and Christianity in Sub-Saharan Africa - The Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, April 15, 2010
  8. Global Christianity: A Report on the Size and Distribution of the World's Christian Population - The Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, December 19, 2011
  9. Largest Religious Groups in the United States of America - Adherents.com, accessed April 16, 2011
  10. American Religious Identification Survey, Key Findings - The Graduate Center of the City University of New York
  11. American Religious Identification Survey, Full PDF Document - The Graduate Center of the City University of New York
  12. Fastest Growing Religion = No Religion (New Religious Identification Survey) (original pdf report | website)
  13. US Refugee Program: Current Fiscal Year Admission Statistics - Cultural Orientation Resource Center, Updated October 2009
  14. 14.0 14.1 14.2 The Future of the Global Muslim Population: Projections for 2010-2030 - Pew Research Center, January 27, 2011
  15. Patrick Goodenough - New Survey on Islam Calls Into Question Population Figure Used by Obama - CNS News, October 9, 2009
  16. Dr. Ilyas Ba-Yunus, Emeritus Professor of Sociology, State University of New York at Cortland
  17. Faraz Rabbani, Former SunniPath Instructor - Dr. Ilyas Ba-Yunus – Pioneer MSA and ISNA Activist & Leader Passes Away - SunniPath, October 5, 2007
  18. Listen to the clip detailing this research (listen on Youtube)
  19. Ahmed Nassef - Listen to Muslim silent majority in US - CSM, April 21, 2004
  20. China - Wikipedia, accessed September 23, 2011
  21. Masood Rab - Chinese Muslim Scholars - Muslim Media Network, March 24, 2008
  22. NW China region eyes global Muslim market - China Daily, July 9, 2008
  23. China (includes Tibet, Hong Kong, and Macau) - US Department of State, International Religious Freedom Report 2006
  24. 24.0 24.1 China/ Religions - CIA, The World Factbook, accessed September 23, 2011
  25. Mark Ellis - China Survey Reveals Fewer Christians than Some Evangelicals Want to Believe - Assist News, October 1, 2007
  26. Survey finds 300m China believers - BBC News, February 7, 2007
  27. Jonathan Watts - Chinese survey finds religion booming - The Guardian, February 7, 2007
  28. Europeiske muslimer dropper moskeen - Aftenposten (Norwegian), May 29, 2010 (English translation)
  29. Jeroen Langelaar - Steeds minder Nederlanders naar kerk of moskee - Elsevier, July 29, 2009
  30. Omar Shahid, "Confessions of an ex-Muslim", New Statesman, May 17, 2013 (archived), http://www.newstatesman.com/religion/2013/05/confessions-ex-muslim. 
  31. Anthony Browne - Muslim apostates cast out and at risk from faith and family Muslim apostates cast out and at risk from faith and family - The Sunday Times, February 5, 2005
  32. "Focus on Families: Muslim families most likely to have children", Office for National Statistics (statistics.gov.uk), p. 8, July 2005 (archived from the original), http://www.webcitation.org/query?url=http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_compendia/fof2005/families.pdf&date=2011-04-16. 
  33. Jodie Reed, "Young Muslims in the UK: Education and Integration", Institute for Public Policy Research, December 2005
  34. Anthony Wells - NOP Poll of British Muslims - UK Polling Report, August 8, 2006
  35. 20Mln Muslims in Russia and mass conversion of ethnic Russians are myths - expert - Interfax, April 10, 2007
  36. Rick Westhead - Some Christians in Pakistan convert fear into safety - Toronto Star, January 20, 2011
  37. 2,000 minorities girls converted to Islam forcibly: report - Daily Times, September 5, 2012
  38. Police protect girls forced to convert to Islam - London Evening Standard, February 22, 2007
  39. ‘Hindu girls targeted by extremists’ - Metro News, February 22, 2007