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La religione che cresce di più

Questo articolo analizza l'affermazione che l'Islam è la __"religione che cresce di più (fastest growing religion)"__ nel mondo (in the world).

Alcuni hanno affermato che l'Islam è la religione che cresce di più al mondo__. Come prova, essi presentano abitualmente_ affermazioni non verificabili e _citazioni dei media senza alcuna base__. Apparentemente l'ABC News ha affermato che __"Contano già più di un miliardo, ma l'Islam è la religione più in crescita nel mondo"__, una citazione di cui non si trova alcuna traccia nella fonte__. Anche la CNN World News affermò che "l'Islam cresce rapidamente e conquista convertiti nel mondo Occidentale", un'affermazione che essi fallirono nel portare alcuna prova___. Qui esaminiamo i veri dati disponibili per l'Islam per vedere se alcune di queste affermazioni sono basate sui fatti.

Secondo il "Futuro della Popolazione Musulmana Mondiale," pubblicato nel Gennaio del 2011 dal Pew Forum, sezione della Religione & Vita Pubblica, la crescita e __il futuro incremento__(and anticipated future growth) dell'Islam è principalmente dovuto al "loro relativamente elevato tasso di nascite___ (relatively high birth rate), il grande numero di Musulmani in età fertile, e all'aumento della aspettativa di vita nei paesi a maggioranza musulmana" mentre le conversioni giocano un piccolo ruolo nell'incremento grazie ai dati disponibili che suggeriscono che l'"Islam perde tanti seguaci per conversioni quanti i suoi guadagni."___^[1][2]

Nel 2006, i paesi a maggioranza Musulmana avevano un rateo di crescita demografica medio di 1.8% per anno (quando ponderate dalla percentuale di Musulmani e dimensione della popolazione)__.^[3] Questo è comparato con il rateo di crescita della popolazione del 1.12% per anno ^[4], e secondo l'Enciclopedia Mondiale Cristiana,tra il 1990 e il 2000, l'Islam ricevette circa 865,558 convertiti ogni anno. Questo viene comparato ai circa 2,883,011 di convertiti all'anno per il Cristianesimo durante lo stesso periodo.^[5]

I Musulmani precedentemente prevalevano sui Cristiani nell' Africa sub-Sahariana. Tuttavia, uno studio pubblicato in Aprile nel 2010 dal Pew Forum sulla Religione & la Vita Pubblica ha evidenziato che i Cristiani ora prevalgono sui Musulmani di 2 su 1,__ rendendo l'Islam una fede minoritaria.^[6][7]

Il numero di aderenti al Cristianesimo nell'Africa sub-Sahariana crebbe da poco meno di 9 milioni nel 1910 a 516 milioni al giorno d'oggi, un incremento di 60 volte che eclissa la crescita dell'Islam.^[8]

Contrariamente a ciò che viene spesso rivendicato, l'Islam non è la religione che cresce più velocemente negli United States.__ Qui ci sono le prove:__

L'Islam e il Cristianesimo entrarono entrambe in Cina durante il 7^th secolo___,^[20] e affermazioni non supportate da delle fonti unreferenced claims have been made of around 100 million Muslims in China. However, most reliable estimates put the figures at 20 to 30 million Muslims (1.5% to 2% of the population).^{[21][22][23][24]}

Similarly, some Christian organizations have claimed up to 130 million Christians in China. However, most reliable estimates range from 40 million (3% of the total population) to 54 million (4%),^{[24][25][26][27]} meaning the growth of Christianity in China is almost double that of Islam.

A United Nations' survey showed that between 1989 and 1998, Europe's Muslim population grew by more than 100 percent, due mainly to the effects of immigration from Muslim countries. Ontario Consultants on Religious Tolerance have an unsourced claim of 2.9 percent per year. And according to a Pew report published in January 2011, the future growth of Islam in Europe will be "driven primarily by continued migration."^[14]

According to data from the extensive 2010 European Social Survey (ESS), Muslims immigrants who have lived less than a year in Europe regularly go to the mosque. But after they have lived more than a year in their new homeland, the figure drops to 48.8%. More than half rarely or never go to the mosque to pray.^[28]

In the Netherlands, mosque attendance is actually dropping faster than church attendance. In 1998, 47 percent of Muslims would attend mosque at least once a month. This figure fell by 12 percent in 2008 to only 35 percent. Whilst church attendance for Catholics fell by only 8 percent, and church attendance amongst Protestants showed no change, remaining at 63 percent.^[29]

It has been estimated that during 2001 - 2011, about 100,000 people converted to Islam in the United Kingdom, but 75 percent of these converts quickly left Islam, during this period.^[30] On the whole, there are about 200,000 apostates from Islam living in the UK, doubling the number that have converted.^[31]

Similarly to the rest of Europe,^[14] the growth of Islam in the UK is primarily due to higher birthrates among Muslims (27 percent of Muslim families have three or more dependent children, compared with 14 percent of Sikh, 8 percent of Hindu, and 7 percent of Christian families)^[32] and immigration (54 percent of all UK Muslims are foreign born).^[33]

A NOP poll of British Muslims commissioned by Channel 4 also found that 48% of Muslims never attend a mosque, with another 6% only attending for special occasions.^[34]

There is a wide spread belief that there are around 20 million Russian Muslims and that vast amounts of Russians are converting to Islam. However, there are only about 7 to 9 million Muslims in Russia and less than 3,000 ethnic Russians have converted to Islam within the last fifteen years.

For the same period almost 2 million ethnic Muslims have become Orthodox Christians. Over 400 Russian Orthodox clergy belong to traditionally Muslim ethnic groups, 20 percent of Tatars are Christian, and 70 percent of interfaith marriages result in the Muslim spouse conversion to Christianity.^[35]

Worth noting is the fact that apostates will rarely advertise leaving Islam due to the death sentence it imposes on its followers, and that most Islamic countries do not acknowledge conversions out of Islam.

Systematic persecution of religious minorities has been documented in almost every Muslim majority country, leading to some converts to Islam being coerced or forced into their conversion.

For example, following the 2010 murder of a leading Muslim politician who called for modifications to Pakistan’s blasphemy law, it had been reported that at least 20 Pakistani Christians were converting to Islam each week out of fear.^[36] Also according to the Society for the Protection of the Rights of the Child (SPARC), there were as many as 2,000 women and girls who were forcibly converted in 2011 to Islam through rape, torture and kidnappings in Pakistan.^[37]

This is not limited to Muslim-majority countries. In the United Kingdom, it was reported in 2007 that police were working with universities to clamp down on "aggressive conversions" to Islam, during which vulnerable teenage girls are beaten up by Muslims and forced to abandon university courses.^[38][39]

All the actual data available reveals that Islam is neither the fastest growing religion by number of adherents or the fastest growing religion by percentage-increase.

The growing number of Muslims in the world is due primarily to the higher than average birth-rates, and consequent population growths of Muslim countries and communities. And their growing presence in non-Muslim societies such as Europe and the Americas is overwhelmingly due to immigration.

Furthermore, converts to Islam are vastly outnumbered by those who choose to leave the religion and embrace another faith or worldview. And the majority of converts that Islam does manage to attract, decide to leave within the first few years of practicing it.

Finally, even if Islam were to be the fastest growing religion in the world, it would be an Argumentum ad populum to claim that this makes it the correct religion.

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