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Muslim Population Growth Rates: Difference between revisions
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[[File:Religion distribution.jpg|right|300px|thumb|A map of the world, showing the major religions distributed in the world today (Pew, Dec 18, 2012).]]Islam is often heralded in popular media as the fastest growing religion in the world. In certain distinct measures, this is correct. In most Muslim-majority countries, birthrates are exceptionally high. This is due to the economic underdevelopment of these regions and exceptionally low rates of female education and empowerment - both well-established factors predicting increased birthrates. In West, where Muslims frequently comprise significant minority populations, birthrates among Muslims are nearer to national averages of the countries in which they reside. Still, in these Western countries, Muslim minorities are often the fastest growing minority populations. This growth rate, however, is overwhelmingly due to immigration rates rather than birthrates. | [[File:Religion distribution.jpg|right|300px|thumb|A map of the world, showing the major religions distributed in the world today (Pew, Dec 18, 2012).]]Islam is often heralded in popular media as the fastest growing religion in the world. In certain distinct measures, this is correct. In most Muslim-majority countries, birthrates are exceptionally high. This is due to the economic underdevelopment of these regions and exceptionally low rates of female education and empowerment - both well-established factors predicting increased birthrates. In West, where Muslims frequently comprise significant minority populations, birthrates among Muslims are nearer to national averages of the countries in which they reside. Still, in these Western countries, Muslim minorities are often the fastest growing minority populations. This growth rate, however, is overwhelmingly due to immigration rates rather than birthrates. | ||
While the variety of individual religious-change greatest in both magnitude and rate of increase is that of leaving religion altogether, both in most of the worlds countries and across the globe altogether, Islam does hold the superlative titles of highest birthrates in some regions and highest immigration-rate in others. Indeed, a number of investigations suggest that in countries where a tangible number of people convert to Islam, the majority of these converts ultimately apostatize (seven in ten, according to one estimate)<ref>{{Citation|author=Imam Luqman Ahmad|publisher=The Lotus Tree|title=Seven out of every ten converts leave Islam|publication-date=January 13th, 2010|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/*/https://imamluqman.wordpress.com/2010/01/13/seven-out-of-every-ten-converts-leave-islam-by-imam-luqman-ahmad/}}</ref> - however, these particular findings are not conclusive. | While the variety of individual religious-change incomparably greatest in both magnitude and rate of increase is that of leaving religion altogether, both in most of the worlds countries and across the globe altogether, Islam does hold the superlative titles of highest birthrates in some regions and highest immigration-rate in others. Indeed, a number of investigations suggest that in countries where a tangible number of people convert to Islam, the majority of these converts ultimately apostatize (seven in ten, according to one estimate)<ref>{{Citation|author=Imam Luqman Ahmad|publisher=The Lotus Tree|title=Seven out of every ten converts leave Islam|publication-date=January 13th, 2010|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/*/https://imamluqman.wordpress.com/2010/01/13/seven-out-of-every-ten-converts-leave-islam-by-imam-luqman-ahmad/}}</ref> - however, these particular findings are not conclusive. | ||
== | ==Growth rates by region== | ||
=== | ===Worldwide=== | ||
==== | According to "The Future of the Global Muslim Population," published in January 2011 by the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, the growth and anticipated future growth of Islam is primarily due to "their relatively high birth rate, the large number of Muslims of childbearing age, and an increase in life expectancy in Muslim-majority countries" and conversions play little part in the increase due to available data suggesting "Islam loses as many adherents via conversion as it gains."<ref>Richard Allen Greene - [{{Reference archive|1=http://religion.blogs.cnn.com/2011/01/27/world-muslim-population-doubling-report-projects/?hpt=C1|2=2011-04-16}} World Muslim population doubling, report projects] - CNN News, January 27, 2011</ref><ref>"''... What little information is available suggests that there is no substantial net gain or loss in the number of Muslims through conversion globally; the number of people who become Muslims through conversion seems to be roughly equal to the number of Muslims who leave the faith. As a result, this report does not include any estimated future rate of conversions as a direct factor in the projections of Muslim population growth.''" - [{{Reference archive|1=http://www.pewforum.org/future-of-the-global-muslim-population-related-factors-conversion.aspx|2=2012-03-23}} The Future of the Global Muslim Population, Related Factors: Conversion], Pew Research Center, January 27, 2011</ref> | ||
In 2006, countries with a Muslim majority had an average population growth rate of 1.8% per year (when weighted by percentage Muslim and population size).<ref> Averaging of individual country figures from [https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook CIA factbook]</ref> This compares with a world population growth rate of 1.12% per year<ref>[https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/xx.html CIA Factbook]</ref>, and according to the ''World Christian Encyclopaedia'', between 1990 and 2000, Islam received around 865,558 converts each year. This compares with an approximate 2,883,011 converts each year for Christianity during the same period.<ref name="bibleca">[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.bible.ca/global-religion-statistics-world-christian-encyclopedia.htm|2=2011-04-16}} Global statistics for all religions: 2001 AD]. www.bible.ca. Accessed 2006-12-26.</ref> By sharp contrast, the number of individuals who have left religion altogether in the same period is incomparably larger. | |||
=== By country === | |||
====Africa==== | ====Africa==== | ||
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The number of adherents to Christianity in sub-Saharan Africa grew from fewer than 9 million in 1910 to 516 million today, a 60-fold increase eclipsing the growth of Islam.<ref>[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.pewforum.org/christian/global-christianity-exec.aspx|2=2012-11-30}} Global Christianity: A Report on the Size and Distribution of the World's Christian Population] - The Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, December 19, 2011</ref> | The number of adherents to Christianity in sub-Saharan Africa grew from fewer than 9 million in 1910 to 516 million today, a 60-fold increase eclipsing the growth of Islam.<ref>[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.pewforum.org/christian/global-christianity-exec.aspx|2=2012-11-30}} Global Christianity: A Report on the Size and Distribution of the World's Christian Population] - The Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, December 19, 2011</ref> | ||
==== | ====United States==== | ||
The ARIS polls<ref>[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.adherents.com/rel_USA.html|2=2011-04-16}} Largest Religious Groups in the United States of America] - Adherents.com, accessed April 16, 2011</ref> 1990 and 2000 show that the percent of change for Islam was +109%. The percent of change for Nonreligious/Secular (+110%), Native American Religion (+119%), Buddhism (+170%), Baha'i (+200%), Hinduism (+237%), New Age (+240%), Sikhism (+338%) and Deism (+717%) were all higher. | |||
The American Religious Identification Survey gave Non-Religious groups the largest gain in terms of absolute numbers - 14,300,000 (8.4% of the population) to 29,400,000 (14.1% of the population) for the period 1990 to 2001 in the USA.<ref name="cuny1">[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.gc.cuny.edu/faculty/research_briefs/aris/key_findings.htm|2=2011-04-16}} American Religious Identification Survey, Key Findings] - The Graduate Center of the City University of New York</ref><ref name="cuny2">[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.gc.cuny.edu/faculty/research_studies/aris.pdf|2=2011-04-16}} American Religious Identification Survey, Full PDF Document] - The Graduate Center of the City University of New York</ref> Also, Americans with no religion were the fastest growing segment from 2001 to 2008.<ref>[{{Reference archive|1=http://blog.beliefnet.com/stevenwaldman/2009/03/fastest-growing-religion-no-re.html|2=2011-04-16}} Fastest Growing Religion = No Religion (New Religious Identification Survey)] ([{{Reference archive|1=http://www.americanreligionsurvey-aris.org/reports/NONES_08.pdf|2=2011-04-16}} original pdf report] | [http://www.americanreligionsurvey-aris.org/ website])</ref> | |||
According to the Cultural Orientation Resource Center,<ref>[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.cal.org/co/refugee/statistics/final_FY2009.html|2=2011-04-16}} US Refugee Program: Current Fiscal Year Admission Statistics] - Cultural Orientation Resource Center, Updated October 2009</ref> 60% of all refugees admitted into the United States are from Muslim-majority countries. Likewise, a Pew report published in January 2011 found that "About two-thirds of the Muslims in the U.S. today (64.5%) are first-generation immigrants (foreign-born)".<ref name="PewRCJan272011">[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.pewforum.org/The-Future-of-the-Global-Muslim-Population.aspx|2=2012-12-02}} The Future of the Global Muslim Population: Projections for 2010-2030] - Pew Research Center, January 27, 2011</ref> | |||
Contrary to figures provided by CAIR and despite the influx of Muslim refugees, a Pew survey carried-out in October 2009 found the estimate for the total Muslim population of the U.S to be at only 2.454 million.<ref>Patrick Goodenough - [{{Reference archive|1=http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/55214|2=2011-04-16}} New Survey on Islam Calls Into Question Population Figure Used by Obama] - CNS News, October 9, 2009</ref> Percentage-wise, Islam represents only 0.8 percent of the United States' religious make-up. | |||
According to research carried out by the respected Pakistani-born American Muslim Dr. Ilyas Ba-Yunus (1932 - 2007),<ref> Dr. Ilyas Ba-Yunus, Emeritus Professor of Sociology, State University of New York at Cortland</ref><ref>Faraz Rabbani, Former SunniPath Instructor - [{{Reference archive|1=http://blog.sunnipath.com/2007/10/05/dr-ilyas-ba-yunus-pioneer-msa-and-isna-activist-leader-passes-away/|2=2011-04-16}} Dr. Ilyas Ba-Yunus – Pioneer MSA and ISNA Activist & Leader Passes Away] - SunniPath, October 5, 2007</ref> 75% of new Muslim converts in the US leave Islam within a few years.<ref>[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.radioislam.com/_asx/PublicAffairs/whynewmleave.asx|2=2011-11-19}} Listen to the clip] detailing this research ([http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v8EC8-aVlrE listen on Youtube])</ref> | |||
====China==== | ====China==== | ||
Islam and Christianity both entered China during the 7<sup>th</sup> century | Islam and Christianity both entered China during the 7<sup>th</sup> century.<ref>[http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=China&oldid=451980300 China] - Wikipedia, accessed September 23, 2011</ref> Most reliable estimates put the figure at 20 to 30 million Muslims (1.5% to 2% of the population).<ref>Masood Rab - [{{Reference archive|1=http://muslimmedianetwork.com/mmn/?p=1922|2=2011-09-23}} Chinese Muslim Scholars] - Muslim Media Network, March 24, 2008</ref><ref>[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2008-07/09/content_6831389.htm|2=2011-09-23}} NW China region eyes global Muslim market] - China Daily, July 9, 2008</ref><ref>[{{Reference archive|1=|2=2011-09-23}} China (includes Tibet, Hong Kong, and Macau)] - US Department of State, International Religious Freedom Report 2006</ref><ref name="The World Factbook China">[{{Reference archive|1=https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html|2=2011-09-23}} China/ Religions] - CIA, The World Factbook, accessed September 23, 2011</ref> For Christians, most reliable estimates range from 40 million (3% of the total population) to 54 million (4%),<ref name="The World Factbook China"></ref><ref>Mark Ellis - [{{Reference archive|1=http://www.assistnews.net/STORIES/2007/s07100011.htm|2=2011-09-23}} China Survey Reveals Fewer Christians than Some Evangelicals Want to Believe] - Assist News, October 1, 2007</ref><ref>[{{Reference archive|1=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/6337627.stm|2=2011-09-23}} Survey finds 300m China believers] - BBC News, February 7, 2007</ref><ref>Jonathan Watts - [{{Reference archive|1=http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/feb/07/china.religion|2=2011-09-23}} Chinese survey finds religion booming] - The Guardian, February 7, 2007</ref>. | ||
====Europe==== | ====Europe==== | ||
A United Nations' survey showed that between 1989 and 1998, Europe's Muslim population grew by more than 100 percent, due mainly to the effects of immigration from Muslim countries. Ontario Consultants on Religious Tolerance have an unsourced | A United Nations' survey showed that between 1989 and 1998, Europe's Muslim population grew by more than 100 percent, due mainly to the effects of immigration from Muslim countries. Ontario Consultants on Religious Tolerance have list an unsourced figure of 2.9 percent per year. According to a Pew report published in January 2011, the future growth of Islam in Europe will be "driven primarily by continued migration."<ref name="PewRCJan272011">[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.pewforum.org/The-Future-of-the-Global-Muslim-Population.aspx|2=2012-12-02}} The Future of the Global Muslim Population: Projections for 2010-2030] - Pew Research Center, January 27, 2011</ref> | ||
According to data from the extensive 2010 European Social Survey (ESS), Muslims immigrants who have lived less than a year in Europe regularly go to the mosque. But after they have lived more than a year in their new homeland, the figure drops to 48.8%. More than half rarely or never go to the mosque to pray.<ref name="Aft">[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/uriks/article3670269.ece|2=2012-11-30}} Europeiske muslimer dropper moskeen] - Aftenposten (Norwegian), May 29, 2010 ([http://islamineurope.blogspot.com/2010/05/eu-muslims-go-to-mosque-less-often.html English translation])</ref> | According to data from the extensive 2010 European Social Survey (ESS), Muslims immigrants who have lived less than a year in Europe regularly go to the mosque. But after they have lived more than a year in their new homeland, the figure drops to 48.8%. More than half rarely or never go to the mosque to pray.<ref name="Aft">[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/uriks/article3670269.ece|2=2012-11-30}} Europeiske muslimer dropper moskeen] - Aftenposten (Norwegian), May 29, 2010 ([http://islamineurope.blogspot.com/2010/05/eu-muslims-go-to-mosque-less-often.html English translation])</ref> | ||
In the Netherlands, mosque attendance is | In the Netherlands, mosque attendance is dropping faster than church attendance. In 1998, 47 percent of Muslims would attend mosque at least once a month. This figure fell by 12 percent in 2008 to only 35 percent. By contrast, church attendance for Catholics fell by only 8 percent, and church attendance amongst Protestants showed no change, remaining at 63 percent.<ref>Jeroen Langelaar - [{{Reference archive|1=http://www.elsevier.nl/web/10242197/Nieuws/Nederland/Steeds-minder-Nederlanders-naar-kerk-of-moskee.htm|2=2011-07-05}} Steeds minder Nederlanders naar kerk of moskee] - Elsevier, July 29, 2009</ref> | ||
=====United Kingdom===== | =====United Kingdom===== | ||
It has been estimated that during 2001 - 2011, about 100,000 people converted to Islam in the United Kingdom, but 75 percent of these converts | It has been estimated that during 2001 - 2011, about 100,000 people converted to Islam in the United Kingdom, but estimates suggest that 75 percent of these converts also left Islam during this period.<ref>{{cite web|url= http://www.newstatesman.com/religion/2013/05/confessions-ex-muslim|title= Confessions of an ex-Muslim|publisher= New Statesman|author= Omar Shahid|date= May 17, 2013|archiveurl= http://www.webcitation.org/query?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.newstatesman.com%2Freligion%2F2013%2F05%2Fconfessions-ex-muslim&date=2013-08-23|deadurl=no}}</ref> At the same time, there were an estimated 200,000 apostates from Islam living in the UK, double the number that converted.<ref>Anthony Browne - [{{Reference archive|1=http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article510589.ece|2=2011-09-18}} Muslim apostates cast out and at risk from faith and family Muslim apostates cast out and at risk from faith and family] - The Sunday Times, February 5, 2005</ref> | ||
Similarly to the rest of Europe,<ref name="PewRCJan272011">[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.pewforum.org/The-Future-of-the-Global-Muslim-Population.aspx|2=2012-12-02}} The Future of the Global Muslim Population: Projections for 2010-2030] - Pew Research Center, January 27, 2011</ref> the growth of Islam in the UK is primarily due to higher birthrates among Muslims (27 percent of Muslim families have three or more dependent children, compared with 14 percent of Sikh, 8 percent of Hindu, and 7 percent of Christian families)<ref>{{cite web|url= http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_compendia/fof2005/families.pdf|title= Focus on Families: Muslim families most likely to have children|publisher= Office for National Statistics (statistics.gov.uk)|author= |date= July 2005|page= 8|archiveurl= http://www.webcitation.org/query?url=http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_compendia/fof2005/families.pdf&date=2011-04-16|deadurl=yes}}</ref> and immigration (54 percent of all UK Muslims are foreign born).<ref name="IPPR">Jodie Reed, "Young Muslims in the UK: Education and Integration", Institute for Public Policy Research, December 2005</ref> | Similarly to the rest of Europe,<ref name="PewRCJan272011">[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.pewforum.org/The-Future-of-the-Global-Muslim-Population.aspx|2=2012-12-02}} The Future of the Global Muslim Population: Projections for 2010-2030] - Pew Research Center, January 27, 2011</ref> the growth of Islam in the UK is primarily due to higher birthrates among Muslims (27 percent of Muslim families have three or more dependent children, compared with 14 percent of Sikh, 8 percent of Hindu, and 7 percent of Christian families)<ref>{{cite web|url= http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_compendia/fof2005/families.pdf|title= Focus on Families: Muslim families most likely to have children|publisher= Office for National Statistics (statistics.gov.uk)|author= |date= July 2005|page= 8|archiveurl= http://www.webcitation.org/query?url=http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_compendia/fof2005/families.pdf&date=2011-04-16|deadurl=yes}}</ref> and immigration (54 percent of all UK Muslims are foreign born).<ref name="IPPR">Jodie Reed, "Young Muslims in the UK: Education and Integration", Institute for Public Policy Research, December 2005</ref> | ||
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For the same period almost 2 million ethnic Muslims have become Orthodox Christians. Over 400 Russian Orthodox clergy belong to traditionally Muslim ethnic groups, 20 percent of Tatars are Christian, and 70 percent of interfaith marriages result in the Muslim spouse conversion to Christianity.<ref>[http://www.webcitation.org/query?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.interfax-religion.com%2F%3Fact%3Dnews%26div%3D2869&date=2011-04-16 <!-- http://www.interfax-religion.com/?act=news&div=2869 -->20Mln Muslims in Russia and mass conversion of ethnic Russians are myths - expert] - Interfax, April 10, 2007</ref> | For the same period almost 2 million ethnic Muslims have become Orthodox Christians. Over 400 Russian Orthodox clergy belong to traditionally Muslim ethnic groups, 20 percent of Tatars are Christian, and 70 percent of interfaith marriages result in the Muslim spouse conversion to Christianity.<ref>[http://www.webcitation.org/query?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.interfax-religion.com%2F%3Fact%3Dnews%26div%3D2869&date=2011-04-16 <!-- http://www.interfax-religion.com/?act=news&div=2869 -->20Mln Muslims in Russia and mass conversion of ethnic Russians are myths - expert] - Interfax, April 10, 2007</ref> | ||
===Other | ===Other factors=== | ||
Worth noting is the fact that apostates will rarely advertise leaving Islam due to the death sentence it imposes on its followers, and that most Islamic countries do not acknowledge conversions out of Islam. | Worth noting is the fact that apostates will rarely advertise leaving Islam due to the death sentence it imposes on its followers, and that most Islamic countries do not acknowledge conversions out of Islam. | ||
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This is not limited to Muslim-majority countries. In the United Kingdom, it was reported in 2007 that police were working with universities to clamp down on "aggressive conversions" to Islam, during which vulnerable teenage girls are beaten up by Muslims and forced to abandon university courses.<ref>[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.standard.co.uk/news/police-protect-girls-forced-to-convert-to-islam-7256407.html|2=2013-01-02}} Police protect girls forced to convert to Islam] - London Evening Standard, February 22, 2007</ref><ref>[{{Reference archive|1=http://metro.co.uk/2007/02/22/hindu-girls-targeted-by-extremists-108990/|2=2013-02-07}} ‘Hindu girls targeted by extremists’] - Metro News, February 22, 2007</ref> | This is not limited to Muslim-majority countries. In the United Kingdom, it was reported in 2007 that police were working with universities to clamp down on "aggressive conversions" to Islam, during which vulnerable teenage girls are beaten up by Muslims and forced to abandon university courses.<ref>[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.standard.co.uk/news/police-protect-girls-forced-to-convert-to-islam-7256407.html|2=2013-01-02}} Police protect girls forced to convert to Islam] - London Evening Standard, February 22, 2007</ref><ref>[{{Reference archive|1=http://metro.co.uk/2007/02/22/hindu-girls-targeted-by-extremists-108990/|2=2013-02-07}} ‘Hindu girls targeted by extremists’] - Metro News, February 22, 2007</ref> | ||
==References== | ==References== | ||