Muslim Population Growth Rates: Difference between revisions

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[[File:Religion distribution.jpg|right|300px|thumb|A map of the world, showing the major religions distributed in the world today (Pew, Dec 18, 2012).]]Islam is often heralded in popular media as the fastest growing religion in the world. In certain distinct measures, this is correct. In most Muslim-majority countries, birthrates are exceptionally high. This is due to the economic underdevelopment of these regions and exceptionally low rates of female education and empowerment - both well-established factors predicting increased birthrates. In West, where Muslims frequently comprise significant minority populations, birthrates among Muslims are nearer to national averages of the countries in which they reside. Still, in these Western countries, Muslim minorities are often the fastest growing minority populations. This growth rate, however, is overwhelmingly due to immigration rates rather than birthrates.
[[File:Religion distribution.jpg|right|300px|thumb|A map of the world, showing the major religions distributed in the world today (Pew, Dec 18, 2012).]]Islam is often heralded in popular media as the fastest growing religion in the world. In certain distinct measures, this is correct. In most Muslim-majority countries, birthrates are exceptionally high. This is due to the economic underdevelopment of these regions and exceptionally low rates of female education and empowerment - both well-established factors predicting increased birthrates. In West, where Muslims frequently comprise significant minority populations, birthrates among Muslims are nearer to national averages of the countries in which they reside. Still, in these Western countries, Muslim minorities are often the fastest growing minority populations. This growth rate, however, is overwhelmingly due to immigration rates rather than birthrates.


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In 2006, countries with a Muslim majority had an average population growth rate of 1.8% per year (when weighted by percentage Muslim and population size).<ref> Averaging of individual country figures from [https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook CIA factbook]</ref>  This compares with a world population growth rate of 1.12% per year<ref>[https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/xx.html CIA Factbook]</ref>, and according to the ''World Christian Encyclopaedia'', between 1990 and 2000, Islam received around 865,558 converts each year. This compares with an approximate 2,883,011 converts each year for Christianity during the same period.<ref name="bibleca">[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.bible.ca/global-religion-statistics-world-christian-encyclopedia.htm|2=2011-04-16}} Global statistics for all religions: 2001 AD]. www.bible.ca. Accessed 2006-12-26.</ref> By sharp contrast, the number of individuals who have left religion altogether in the same period is incomparably larger.
In 2006, countries with a Muslim majority had an average population growth rate of 1.8% per year (when weighted by percentage Muslim and population size).<ref> Averaging of individual country figures from [https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook CIA factbook]</ref>  This compares with a world population growth rate of 1.12% per year<ref>[https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/xx.html CIA Factbook]</ref>, and according to the ''World Christian Encyclopaedia'', between 1990 and 2000, Islam received around 865,558 converts each year. This compares with an approximate 2,883,011 converts each year for Christianity during the same period.<ref name="bibleca">[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.bible.ca/global-religion-statistics-world-christian-encyclopedia.htm|2=2011-04-16}} Global statistics for all religions: 2001 AD]. www.bible.ca. Accessed 2006-12-26.</ref> By sharp contrast, the number of individuals who have left religion altogether in the same period is incomparably larger.


=== By country ===
===By country===


====Africa====
====Africa====
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====Europe====
====Europe====


A United Nations' survey showed that between 1989 and 1998, Europe's Muslim population grew by more than 100 percent, due mainly to the effects of immigration from Muslim countries. Ontario Consultants on Religious Tolerance have list an unsourced figure of 2.9 percent per year. According to a Pew report published in January 2011, the future growth of Islam in Europe will be "driven primarily by continued migration."<ref name="PewRCJan272011">[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.pewforum.org/The-Future-of-the-Global-Muslim-Population.aspx|2=2012-12-02}} The Future of the Global Muslim Population: Projections for 2010-2030] - Pew Research Center, January 27, 2011</ref>
A United Nations' survey showed that between 1989 and 1998, Europe's Muslim population grew by more than 100 percent, due mainly to the effects of immigration from Muslim countries. Ontario Consultants on Religious Tolerance have listed a figure of 2.9 percent per year, however they do not provide a source. According to a Pew report published in January 2011, the future growth of Islam in Europe will be "driven primarily by continued migration."<ref name="PewRCJan272011">[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.pewforum.org/The-Future-of-the-Global-Muslim-Population.aspx|2=2012-12-02}} The Future of the Global Muslim Population: Projections for 2010-2030] - Pew Research Center, January 27, 2011</ref>


According to data from the extensive 2010 European Social Survey (ESS), Muslims immigrants who have lived less than a year in Europe regularly go to the mosque. But after they have lived more than a year in their new homeland, the figure drops to 48.8%. More than half rarely or never go to the mosque to pray.<ref name="Aft">[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/uriks/article3670269.ece|2=2012-11-30}} Europeiske muslimer dropper moskeen] - Aftenposten (Norwegian), May 29, 2010 ([http://islamineurope.blogspot.com/2010/05/eu-muslims-go-to-mosque-less-often.html English translation])</ref>  
According to data from the extensive 2010 European Social Survey (ESS), Muslims immigrants who have lived less than a year in Europe regularly go to the mosque. But after they have lived more than a year in their new homeland, the figure drops to 48.8%. More than half rarely or never go to the mosque to pray.<ref name="Aft">[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/uriks/article3670269.ece|2=2012-11-30}} Europeiske muslimer dropper moskeen] - Aftenposten (Norwegian), May 29, 2010 ([http://islamineurope.blogspot.com/2010/05/eu-muslims-go-to-mosque-less-often.html English translation])</ref>  
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=====United Kingdom=====
=====United Kingdom=====


It has been estimated that during 2001 - 2011, about 100,000 people converted to Islam in the United Kingdom, but estimates suggest that 75 percent of these converts also left Islam during this period.<ref>{{cite web|url= http://www.newstatesman.com/religion/2013/05/confessions-ex-muslim|title= Confessions of an ex-Muslim|publisher= New Statesman|author= Omar Shahid|date= May 17, 2013|archiveurl= http://www.webcitation.org/query?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.newstatesman.com%2Freligion%2F2013%2F05%2Fconfessions-ex-muslim&date=2013-08-23|deadurl=no}}</ref> At the same time, there were an estimated 200,000 apostates from Islam living in the UK, double the number that converted.<ref>Anthony Browne - [{{Reference archive|1=http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article510589.ece|2=2011-09-18}} Muslim apostates cast out and at risk from faith and family Muslim apostates cast out and at risk from faith and family] - The Sunday Times, February 5, 2005</ref>
It has been estimated that during 2001 - 2011, about 100,000 people converted to Islam in the United Kingdom, but estimates also suggest that 75 percent of these converts also left Islam during this period.<ref>{{cite web|url= http://www.newstatesman.com/religion/2013/05/confessions-ex-muslim|title= Confessions of an ex-Muslim|publisher= New Statesman|author= Omar Shahid|date= May 17, 2013|archiveurl= http://www.webcitation.org/query?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.newstatesman.com%2Freligion%2F2013%2F05%2Fconfessions-ex-muslim&date=2013-08-23|deadurl=no}}</ref> At the same time, there were an estimated 200,000 apostates from Islam living in the UK, double the number that converted.<ref>Anthony Browne - [{{Reference archive|1=http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article510589.ece|2=2011-09-18}} Muslim apostates cast out and at risk from faith and family Muslim apostates cast out and at risk from faith and family] - The Sunday Times, February 5, 2005</ref>


Similarly to the rest of Europe,<ref name="PewRCJan272011">[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.pewforum.org/The-Future-of-the-Global-Muslim-Population.aspx|2=2012-12-02}} The Future of the Global Muslim Population: Projections for 2010-2030] - Pew Research Center, January 27, 2011</ref> the growth of Islam in the UK is primarily due to higher birthrates among Muslims (27 percent of Muslim families have three or more dependent children, compared with 14 percent of Sikh, 8 percent of Hindu, and 7 percent of Christian families)<ref>{{cite web|url= http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_compendia/fof2005/families.pdf|title= Focus on Families: Muslim families most likely to have children|publisher= Office for National Statistics (statistics.gov.uk)|author= |date= July 2005|page= 8|archiveurl= http://www.webcitation.org/query?url=http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_compendia/fof2005/families.pdf&date=2011-04-16|deadurl=yes}}</ref> and immigration (54 percent of all UK Muslims are foreign born).<ref name="IPPR">Jodie Reed, "Young Muslims in the UK: Education and Integration", Institute for Public Policy Research, December 2005</ref>
Similarly to the rest of Europe,<ref name="PewRCJan272011">[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.pewforum.org/The-Future-of-the-Global-Muslim-Population.aspx|2=2012-12-02}} The Future of the Global Muslim Population: Projections for 2010-2030] - Pew Research Center, January 27, 2011</ref> the growth of Islam in the UK is primarily due to higher birthrates among Muslims (27 percent of Muslim families have three or more dependent children, compared with 14 percent of Sikh, 8 percent of Hindu, and 7 percent of Christian families)<ref>{{cite web|url= http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_compendia/fof2005/families.pdf|title= Focus on Families: Muslim families most likely to have children|publisher= Office for National Statistics (statistics.gov.uk)|author= |date= July 2005|page= 8|archiveurl= http://www.webcitation.org/query?url=http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_compendia/fof2005/families.pdf&date=2011-04-16|deadurl=yes}}</ref> and immigration (54 percent of all UK Muslims are foreign born).<ref name="IPPR">Jodie Reed, "Young Muslims in the UK: Education and Integration", Institute for Public Policy Research, December 2005</ref>
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====Russia====
====Russia====


There is a wide spread belief that there are around 20 million Russian Muslims and that vast amounts of Russians are converting to Islam. However, there are only about 7 to 9 million Muslims in [[Russia]] and less than 3,000 ethnic Russians have converted to Islam within the last fifteen years.  
There are about 9 million Muslims in [[Russia]] and less than 3,000 ethnic Russians converted to Islam in fifteen years. During the same period, almost 2 million ethnic Muslims have became Orthodox Christians. Over 400 Russian Orthodox clergy belong to traditionally Muslim ethnic groups, 20 percent of Tatars are Christian, and 70 percent of interfaith marriages result in the Muslim spouse conversion to Christianity.<ref>[http://www.webcitation.org/query?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.interfax-religion.com%2F%3Fact%3Dnews%26div%3D2869&date=2011-04-16 <!-- http://www.interfax-religion.com/?act=news&div=2869 -->20Mln Muslims in Russia and mass conversion of ethnic Russians are myths - expert] - Interfax, April 10, 2007</ref>


For the same period almost 2 million ethnic Muslims have become Orthodox Christians. Over 400 Russian Orthodox clergy belong to traditionally Muslim ethnic groups, 20 percent of Tatars are Christian, and 70 percent of interfaith marriages result in the Muslim spouse conversion to Christianity.<ref>[http://www.webcitation.org/query?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.interfax-religion.com%2F%3Fact%3Dnews%26div%3D2869&date=2011-04-16 <!-- http://www.interfax-religion.com/?act=news&div=2869 -->20Mln Muslims in Russia and mass conversion of ethnic Russians are myths - expert] - Interfax, April 10, 2007</ref>
===Limiting factors===


===Other factors===
Systematic persecution of religious minorities in almost every Muslim-majority country likely inflates the number of Muslim converts in these nations in a manner surveys are unable to detect. Following the 2010 murder of a leading Muslim politician who called for modifications to Pakistan’s [[Islam and Freedom of Speech|blasphemy]] law, for instance, it was reported that at least 20 Pakistani Christians were converting to Islam each week out of fear.<ref>Rick Westhead - [{{Reference archive|1=http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/925715--some-christians-in-paki|2=2011-04-16}} Some Christians in Pakistan convert fear into safety] - Toronto Star, January 20, 2011</ref> And according to the Society for the Protection of the Rights of the Child (SPARC), there were as many as 2,000 women and girls who were [[Forced Conversion|forcibly converted]] in 2011 to Islam through [[rape]], torture and kidnappings in Pakistan.<ref>[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2012/09/05/story_5-9-2012_pg7_25|2=2012-09-05}} 2,000 minorities girls converted to Islam forcibly: report] - Daily Times, September 5, 2012</ref>


Worth noting is the fact that apostates will rarely advertise leaving Islam due to the death sentence it imposes on its followers, and that most Islamic countries do not acknowledge conversions out of Islam.
Comparable albeit less dramatic analogs have also been found in the Western world. In the United Kingdom, it was reported in 2007 that police were working with universities to clamp down on "aggressive conversions" to Islam, during which vulnerable teenage girls were beaten up by Muslim thugs and forced to abandon university courses.<ref>[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.standard.co.uk/news/police-protect-girls-forced-to-convert-to-islam-7256407.html|2=2013-01-02}} Police protect girls forced to convert to Islam] - London Evening Standard, February 22, 2007</ref><ref>[{{Reference archive|1=http://metro.co.uk/2007/02/22/hindu-girls-targeted-by-extremists-108990/|2=2013-02-07}} ‘Hindu girls targeted by extremists’] - Metro News, February 22, 2007</ref>
 
Systematic persecution of religious minorities has been documented in almost every Muslim majority country, leading to some converts to Islam being coerced or forced into their conversion.
 
For example, following the 2010 murder of a leading Muslim politician who called for modifications to Pakistan’s [[Islam and Freedom of Speech|blasphemy]] law, it had been reported that at least 20 Pakistani Christians were converting to Islam each week out of fear.<ref>Rick Westhead - [{{Reference archive|1=http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/925715--some-christians-in-paki|2=2011-04-16}} Some Christians in Pakistan convert fear into safety] - Toronto Star, January 20, 2011</ref> Also according to the Society for the Protection of the Rights of the Child (SPARC), there were as many as 2,000 women and girls who were [[Forced Conversion|forcibly converted]] in 2011 to Islam through [[rape]], torture and kidnappings in Pakistan.<ref>[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2012/09/05/story_5-9-2012_pg7_25|2=2012-09-05}} 2,000 minorities girls converted to Islam forcibly: report] - Daily Times, September 5, 2012</ref>
 
This is not limited to Muslim-majority countries. In the United Kingdom, it was reported in 2007 that police were working with universities to clamp down on "aggressive conversions" to Islam, during which vulnerable teenage girls are beaten up by Muslims and forced to abandon university courses.<ref>[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.standard.co.uk/news/police-protect-girls-forced-to-convert-to-islam-7256407.html|2=2013-01-02}} Police protect girls forced to convert to Islam] - London Evening Standard, February 22, 2007</ref><ref>[{{Reference archive|1=http://metro.co.uk/2007/02/22/hindu-girls-targeted-by-extremists-108990/|2=2013-02-07}} ‘Hindu girls targeted by extremists’] - Metro News, February 22, 2007</ref>


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