Prophecies in the Hadith
This article looks at different categories of Muhammamd's prophecies with examples. Some of the prophecies are considered "signs of the Hour", which are events that are supposed to indicate that the Day of Judgement is coming.
Predictions of what already happened before the hadiths were written
The hadith collections were written, often by Persian authors, many years after the death of Muhammad. So when the hadiths contain a prophecy about early Islamic history, it might be attributed to Muhamamd after the fact. This category also includes things that always happened, even before Islam (earthquakes, wars, people being dishonest...).
It's questionable whether "prophecies" in this category could be considered prophecies when they don't say anything new.
"The caliphate will last 30 years"
Sa'eed bin Jumhan narrated: "Safinah narrated to me, he said: 'The Messenger of Allah(s.a.w) said: "Al-Khilafah will be in my Ummah for thirty years, then there will be monarchy after that."' Then Safinah said to me: 'Count the Khilafah of Abu Bakr,' then he said: 'Count the Khilafah of 'Umar and the Khilafah of 'Uthman.' Then he said to me: 'Count the Khilafah of 'Ali."' He said: "So we found that they add up to thirty years." Sa'eed said: "I said to him: 'Banu Umaiyyah claim that the Khilafah is among them.' He said: 'Banu Az-Zarqa' lie, rather they are a monarchy, among the worst of monarchies."'
- The first caliphate lasted from 632-661, which is 29 years, not 30
- Tirmidhi, author of this hadith collection, was born in 824, more than 100 years after the end of the caliphate
- The hadith in it's text is in the context of discussion about previous caliphates
- The political system after the first caliphate, was still called a caliphate. There was some form of caliphate until the 20th century
"Earthquakes will increase"
It's a part of a big hadith as one of the signs of the end of the world:
There were always earthquakes, increasing and decreasing. There is a report that earthquake happened also during the life of Muhammad:
He [the Prophet (ﷺ)] prayed during an earthquake six bowings and four prostrations, and said, "This is the way the Prayer of the Signs (of Allah) is offered.
Earthquakes were also already predicted in the Bible:
When you hear of wars and uprisings, do not be frightened. These things must happen first, but the end will not come right away.”
Then he said to them: “Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. There will be great earthquakes, famines and pestilences in various places, and fearful events and great signs from heaven.
"My death" [Muhammad's]
Muhammad predicted that he will die. The prediction doesn't contain any specific information about his death:
I went to the Prophet (ﷺ) during the Ghazwa of Tabuk while he was sitting in a leather tent. He said, "Count six signs that indicate the approach of the Hour: my death, the conquest of Jerusalem, a plague that will afflict you (and kill you in great numbers) as the plague that afflicts sheep, the increase of wealth to such an extent that even if one is given one hundred Dinars, he will not be satisfied; then an affliction which no Arab house will escape, and then a truce between you and Bani Al-Asfar (i.e. the Byzantines) who will betray you and attack you under eighty flags. Under each flag will be twelve thousand soldiers.
All people that lived before Muhammad eventually died. He could observe dying of people around him. There's nothing special about predicting that he will eventually die too, just like all other human beings.
The context is that it will be a sign that the Hour is coming. But Muhammad died more than a thousand years ago and the Hour didn't come.
"Sexual immorality" (abominations)
It was narrated that ‘Abdullah bin ‘Umar said: “The Messenger of Allah ﷺ turned to us and said: ‘O Muhajirun, there are five things with which you will be tested, and I seek refuge with Allah lest you live to see them: Immorality never appears among a people to such an extent that they commit it openly, but plagues and diseases that were never known among the predecessors will spread among them. They do not cheat in weights and measures but they will be stricken with famine, severe calamity and the oppression of their rulers. They do not withhold the Zakah of their wealth, but rain will be withheld from the sky, and were it not for the animals, no rain would fall on them. They do not break their covenant with Allah and His Messenger, but Allah will enable their enemies to overpower them and take some of what is in their hands. Unless their leaders rule according to the Book of Allah and seek all good from that which Allah has revealed, Allah will cause them to fight one another.’”
Sexual immorality (or "abomination") was nothing new in the 7th century. The Old Testament mentions a story of a city where all people were homosexuals who wanted to rape angels, but Lot offered them his daughters instead:
He prepared a meal for them, baking bread without yeast, and they ate. Before they had gone to bed, all the men from every part of the city of Sodom—both young and old—surrounded the house. They called to Lot, “Where are the men who came to you tonight? Bring them out to us so that we can have sex with them.” Lot went outside to meet them and shut the door behind him and said, “No, my friends. Don’t do this wicked thing. Look, I have two daughters who have never slept with a man. Let me bring them out to you, and you can do what you like with them.
In the New Testament Jesus spoke to a woman who had many sexual partners:
“Go and get your husband,” Jesus told her.
“I don’t have a husband,” the woman replied.
Jesus said, “You’re right! You don’t have a husband— for you have had five husbands, and you aren’t even married to the man you’re living with now. You certainly spoke the truth!”
Although Islamic apologists try to portray "abominations" in today's world as some shocking new events that were predicted by Muhammad, these "abominations" happened long before Muhammad was born. There were also abominations happening in Muhammad's time:
Narrated `Aisha:
that the Prophet (ﷺ) married her when she was six years old and he consummated his marriage when she was nine years old. Hisham said: I have been informed that `Aisha remained with the Prophet (ﷺ) for nine years (i.e. till his death).
Sexual perversions were nothing new for Muhammad.
And the plagues and diseases that are supposed to be punishments for the immoralities also happened throughout whole history. Plagues (pestilences) were already predicted in the Bible, hundereds of years before Muhammad:
When you hear of wars and uprisings, do not be frightened. These things must happen first, but the end will not come right away.”
Then he said to them: “Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. There will be great earthquakes, famines and pestilences in various places, and fearful events and great signs from heaven.
Muhammad didn't bring anything new.
"Cheating in weights (scales)"
It was narrated that ‘Abdullah bin ‘Umar said: “The Messenger of Allah ﷺ turned to us and said: ‘O Muhajirun, there are five things with which you will be tested, and I seek refuge with Allah lest you live to see them: Immorality never appears among a people to such an extent that they commit it openly, but plagues and diseases that were never known among the predecessors will spread among them. They do not cheat in weights and measures but they will be stricken with famine, severe calamity and the oppression of their rulers. They do not withhold the Zakah of their wealth, but rain will be withheld from the sky, and were it not for the animals, no rain would fall on them. They do not break their covenant with Allah and His Messenger, but Allah will enable their enemies to overpower them and take some of what is in their hands. Unless their leaders rule according to the Book of Allah and seek all good from that which Allah has revealed, Allah will cause them to fight one another.’”
Cheating in weights is not a prediction of the future. It happened thousands of years before Islam and was mentioned as being prevalent even in the Old Testament:
Then the Lord said to me, “The end has come for My people Israel. I will spare them no longer. The songs of the palace will turn to wailing in that day,” declares the Lord God. “Many will be the corpses; in every place they will cast them forth in silence.” Hear this, you who trample the needy, to do away with the humble of the land, saying: “When will the new moon be over, So that we may sell grain, And the sabbath, that we may open the wheat market, To make the bushel smaller and the shekel bigger, And to cheat with dishonest scales
And famines that are supposedly a punishment for the cheating also happened throughout whole history.
"Killing" [pointless killing]
Narrated `Abdullah and Abu Musa:
The Prophet (ﷺ) said, "Near the establishment of the Hour there will be days during which Religious ignorance will spread, knowledge will be taken away (vanish) and there will be much Al-Harj, and Al- Harj means killing."
Killing was happening long before Islam. We can read in the Old Testament many texts about mass killing. For example:
Now go and smite Amalek and utterly destroy all they have; do not spare them, but kill both man and woman, infant and suckling, ox and sheep, camel and donkey.
Pointless killing was also happening during Muhammad's time with Muhammad's approval:
Then they surrendered, and the apostle confined them in Medina in the quarter of d. al-Harith, a woman of B. al-Najjar. Then the apostle went out to the market of Medina (which is still its market today) and dug trenches in it. Then he sent for them and struck off their heads in those trenches as they were brought out to him in batches. Among them was the enemy of Allah Huyayy b. Akhtab and Ka`b b. Asad their chief. There were 600 or 700 in all, though some put the figure as high as 800 or 900.
"Ignorance"
Narrated `Abdullah and Abu Musa:
The Prophet (ﷺ) said, "Near the establishment of the Hour there will be days during which Religious ignorance will spread, knowledge will be taken away (vanish) and there will be much Al-Harj, and Al- Harj means killing."- In Islam, the period before Muhammad's career is called jahilya (ignorance). So even according to Islam, this already happened before Islam.
- The hadith says only jahl, which is just "ignorance", but in context of Islam, when Muhammad says "knowledge" it means "knowledge of Muhamamd's claims" and when Islam says "ignorance" it means "ignorance of Muhammad's claims"
- Muhammad probably noticed that Jews don't fully follow the law of Moses, so he could predict that Muslims won't follow his laws based on this experience.
A man passes by a grave and wants to be dead too
وَحَتَّى يَمُرَّ الرَّجُلُ بِقَبْرِ الرَّجُلِ فَيَقُولُ يَا لَيْتَنِي مَكَانَهُ
... till a man when passing by a grave of someone will say, 'Would that I were in his place...
A desire to be dead was nothing new in the 7th century. The Old Testament already mentioned it:
"Therefore now, O LORD, please take my life from me, for death is better to me than life."
Predictions of the future after the hadiths
In this category are hadiths that don't talk about what already happened before the prophecies were written.
Predictions of opposites from the usual
This is a special category, because it doesn't seem to be a prediction, but rather a statement that the opposite of what was considered granted at that time will happen. For example mountains were considered solid (not moving), so a prophecy says that mountains will be moving. These predictions could be made mechanically just by saying the opposite of what currently happens. So even if they somehow came true, there would still be an alternative explanation for how the prophecy was made.
"Mountains will move"
This hadith is da'eef (thanks to Ufayr bin Ma'daan in the chain), but some Islamic apologists still like to use it and present it as if it was sahih:
لا تقومُ الساعةُ حتى تزولَ الجبالُ عن أماكِنِها وتَرَوْنَ الأمورَ العظامَ التي لم تَكُونوا تَرَوْنَها
The Hour will not begin until the mountains are moved from their places and you see great calamities which you have never seen before.
Mountains were considered as not moving, so a prophecy could be make simply by saying that the opposite of what usually happens will happen.
Predictions that didn't come true
In this category are predictions that didn't come true. Some of them (like coming of the Dajjal) are not falsifiable, since they could still happen in the future. While others couldn't happen even in the future.
"Rising of the Sun from its setting place"
We were sitting in the shade of the chamber of the Messenger of Allah (ﷺ) discussing (something) and when we mentioned the last hour, our voices rose high. The Messenger of Allah (ﷺ) said: The last hour will not come or happen until there appear ten signs before it : the rising of the sun in its place of setting, the coming forth of the beast, the coming forth of Gog and Magog, the Dajjal (Antichrist), (the descent of) Jesus son of Mary, the smoke, and three collapses of the earth: one in the west, one in the east, and one in the Arabian Peninsula. The last of that will be the emergence of a fire from Yemen, from the lowest part of Aden, and drive mankind to their place of assembly.
This prophecy is definitely wrong, because it assumes that the Sun moves around the Earth (which was a common misconception among 7th century primitive people).
Predictions that didn't fully come true
In this category are predictions that came true only partially.
"Building tall buildings"
..and when you see barefoot, naked, destitute shepherds competing in constructing tall buildings
- There are currently people who compete in constructing tall buildings, but we don't see barefoot, naked destitute shepherds building them.
- The Bible contained a story of the Tower of Babel, Egyptians built pyramids long before Islam.. So the desire to build tall buildings was nothing new.
- The hadith doesn't say skyscrapers, it only says "tall" and "tall" is relative. There might have been people in the 7th century building buildings that could be considered tall in that time.
Underwhelming predictions that came true
In this category are predictions that came true, but weren't hard to predict.
"You shall conquer Constantinople"
This hadith is considered da'eef by Albani, but sahih by Dhahabi:
لتفتحن القسطنطينية، فلنعم الأمير أميرها، ولنعم الجيش ذلك الجيش
Verily you shall conquer Constantinople. What a wonderful leader will her leader be, and what a wonderful army will that army be!
Muhammad himself was waging wars, so it was expected that Muslims after his death would continue conquering. Muhammad conquered Arabia and Constantinople wasn't that far away. This wasn't a hard prediction. Also it's not time-specific. So even if it didn't happen, Muslims could still think it would happen in the future. And there are Muslims today who believe that this prediction doesn't refer to the conquest in 15th century, but to a conquest that will happen when the mahdi comes.
Overwhelming predictions that came true
In this category are supposed to be detailed, accurate, verifiable, fulfilled predictions of the future that would be hard to predict in the time they were written. This category is empty.