Muslim Population Growth Rates: Difference between revisions

[[File:Religion distribution.jpg|right|300px|thumb|A map of the world, showing the major religions distributed in the world today (Pew, Dec 18, 2012).]]

==Introduction==

Many Muslims and [[websites]] claim that Islam is the fastest growing religion in the world. As proof, they usually present us with unverifiable claims and baseless media quotes. Apparently ABC [[News]] had claimed "Already more than a billion-people strong, Islam is the world's fastest-growing religion", a quote which cannot be traced to its source. Also CNN World News stated "Fast-growing Islam winning converts in Western world", a statement which they fail to back up with any evidence. Here we examine the actual data available for Islam to see if any of these claims are based on fact.

According to "The Future of the Global Muslim Population," published in January 2011 by the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, the growth and anticipated future growth of Islam is primarily due to "their relatively high birth rate, the large number of Muslims of childbearing age, and an increase in life expectancy in Muslim-majority countries" and conversions play little part in the increase due to available data suggesting "Islam loses as many adherents via conversion as it gains."<ref>Richard Allen Greene - [{{Reference archive|1=http://religion.blogs.cnn.com/2011/01/27/world-muslim-population-doubling-report-projects/?hpt=C1|2=2011-04-16}} World Muslim population doubling, report projects] - CNN News, January 27, 2011</ref><ref>"''... What little information is available suggests that there is no substantial net gain or loss in the number of Muslims through conversion globally; the number of people who become Muslims through conversion seems to be roughly equal to the number of Muslims who leave the faith. As a result, this report does not include any estimated future rate of conversions as a direct factor in the projections of Muslim population growth.''" - [{{Reference archive|1=http://www.pewforum.org/future-of-the-global-muslim-population-related-factors-conversion.aspx|2=2012-03-23}} The Future of the Global Muslim Population, Related Factors: Conversion], Pew Research Center, January 27, 2011</ref>

In 2006, countries with a Muslim majority had an average population growth rate of 1.8% per year (when weighted by percentage Muslim and population size).<ref> Averaging of individual country figures from [https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook CIA factbook]</ref>  This compares with a world population growth rate of 1.12% per year<ref>[https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/xx.html CIA Factbook]</ref>, and according to the ''World Christian Encyclopaedia'', between 1990 and 2000, Islam received around 865,558 converts each year. This compares with an approximate 2,883,011 converts each year for Christianity during the same period.<ref name="bibleca">[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.bible.ca/global-religion-statistics-world-christian-encyclopedia.htm|2=2011-04-16}} Global statistics for all religions: 2001 AD]. www.bible.ca. Accessed 2006-12-26.</ref>

Contrary to what Muslims claim, Islam is not the fastest growing religion in the [[United States]], and quoting news broadcasters and politicians (who get their information from [[Council on American-Islamic Relations|CAIR]]) does not make it true. Here are the available facts.

* According to Ahmed Nassef, the co-founder and editor in chief of MuslimWakeUp.com, less than 7 percent of American Muslims attend mosque regularly, compared with 38 percent of American Christians who attend church weekly.<ref>Ahmed Nassef - [{{Reference archive|1=http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0421/p09s02-coop.html|2=2012-11-30}} Listen to Muslim silent majority in US] - CSM, April 21, 2004</ref>

There is a wide spread myth that there are around 20 million Russian Muslims and that vast amounts of Russians are converting to Islam. In reality, there are only about 7 to 9 million Muslims in [[Russia]] and less than 3,000 ethnic Russians have converted to Islam within the last fifteen years.  

For the same period almost 2 million ethic Muslims have become Orthodox Christians. Over 400 Russian Orthodox clergy belong to traditionally Muslim ethnic groups, 20 percent of Tatars are Christian, and 70 percent of interfaith marriages result in the Muslim spouse conversion to Christianity.<ref>[http://www.webcitation.org/query?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.interfax-religion.com%2F%3Fact%3Dnews%26div%3D2869&date=2011-04-16 <!-- http://www.interfax-religion.com/?act=news&div=2869 -->20Mln Muslims in Russia and mass conversion of ethnic Russians are myths - expert] - Interfax, April 10, 2007</ref>

Muslims previously outnumbered Christians in sub-Saharan [[Africa]]. However, a study published in April 2010 by the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life has found that Christians now outnumber Muslims by 2 to 1 making Islam a minority belief.<ref>[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.catholicculture.org/news/headlines/index.cfm?storyid=6063|2=2011-04-16}} Christians now outnumber Muslims in sub-Saharan Africa by 2 to 1] - Catholic Culture, April 19, 2010</ref><ref>[{{Reference archive|1=http://pewforum.org/executive-summary-islam-and-christianity-in-sub-saharan-africa.aspx|2=2011-04-16}} Tolerance and Tension: Islam and Christianity in Sub-Saharan Africa] - The Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, April 15, 2010</ref>  

The number of adherents to Christianity in sub-Saharan Africa grew from fewer than 9 million in 1910 to 516 million today, a 60-fold increase eclipsing the growth of Islam.<ref>[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.pewforum.org/christian/global-christianity-exec.aspx|2=2012-11-30}} Global Christianity: A Report on the Size and Distribution of the World's Christian Population] - The Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, December 19, 2011</ref>

It has been estimated that during 2001 - 2011, about 100,000 people converted to Islam in the [[United Kingdom]], but 75 percent of these converts quickly left Islam, during this period.<ref>{{cite web|url= http://www.newstatesman.com/religion/2013/05/confessions-ex-muslim|title= Confessions of an ex-Muslim|publisher= New Statesman|author= Omar Shahid|date= May 17, 2013|archiveurl= http://www.webcitation.org/query?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.newstatesman.com%2Freligion%2F2013%2F05%2Fconfessions-ex-muslim&date=2013-08-23|deadurl=no}}</ref> On the whole, there are about 200,000 apostates from Islam living in the UK, doubling the number that have converted.<ref>Anthony Browne - [{{Reference archive|1=http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article510589.ece|2=2011-09-18}} Muslim apostates cast out and at risk from faith and family Muslim apostates cast out and at risk from faith and family] - The Sunday Times, February 5, 2005</ref>

Similarly to the rest of [[Europe]],<ref name="PewRCJan272011">[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.pewforum.org/The-Future-of-the-Global-Muslim-Population.aspx|2=2012-12-02}} The Future of the Global Muslim Population: Projections for 2010-2030] - Pew Research Center, January 27, 2011</ref> the growth of Islam in the UK is primarily due to higher birthrates among Muslims (27 percent of Muslim families have three or more dependent children, compared with 14 percent of Sikh, 8 percent of Hindu, and 7 percent of Christian families)<ref>[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_compendia/fof2005/families.pdf|2=2011-04-16}} Muslim families most likely to have children] - National Statistics, UK</ref> and immigration (54 percent of all UK Muslims are foreign born).<ref name="IPPR">Jodie Reed, "Young Muslims in the UK: Education and Integration", Institute for Public Policy Research, December 2005</ref>

A United Nations' survey showed that between 1989 and 1998, Europe's Muslim population grew by more than 100 percent, due mainly to the effects of immigration from Muslim countries. Ontario Consultants on Religious Tolerance have an unsourced claim of 2.9 percent per year. And according to a Pew report published in January 2011, the future growth of Islam in Europe will be "driven primarily by continued migration."<ref name="PewRCJan272011">[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.pewforum.org/The-Future-of-the-Global-Muslim-Population.aspx|2=2012-12-02}} The Future of the Global Muslim Population: Projections for 2010-2030] - Pew Research Center, January 27, 2011</ref>

In the [[Netherlands]], mosque attendance is actually dropping faster than church attendance. In 1998, 47 percent of Muslims would attend mosque at least once a month. This figure fell by 12 percent in 2008 to only 35 percent. Whilst church attendance for Catholics fell by only 8 percent, and church attendance amongst Protestants showed no change, remaining at 63 percent.<ref>Jeroen Langelaar - [{{Reference archive|1=http://www.elsevier.nl/web/10242197/Nieuws/Nederland/Steeds-minder-Nederlanders-naar-kerk-of-moskee.htm|2=2011-07-05}} Steeds minder Nederlanders naar kerk of moskee] - Elsevier, July 29, 2009</ref>

Islam and Christianity both entered [[China]] during the 7^th century,<ref>[http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=China&oldid=451980300 China] - Wikipedia, accessed September 23, 2011</ref> and unreferenced claims have been made of around 100 million Muslims in China. However, most reliable estimates put the figures at 20 to 30 million Muslims (1.5% to 2% of the population).<ref>Masood Rab - [{{Reference archive|1=http://muslimmedianetwork.com/mmn/?p=1922|2=2011-09-23}} Chinese Muslim Scholars] - Muslim Media Network, March 24, 2008</ref><ref>[{{Reference archive|1=http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2008-07/09/content_6831389.htm|2=2011-09-23}} NW China region eyes global Muslim market] - China Daily, July 9, 2008</ref><ref>[{{Reference archive|1=|2=2011-09-23}} China (includes Tibet, Hong Kong, and Macau)] - US Department of State, International Religious Freedom Report 2006</ref><ref name="The World Factbook China">[{{Reference archive|1=https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html|2=2011-09-23}} China/ Religions] - CIA, The World Factbook, accessed September 23, 2011</ref>

Similarly, some Christian organizations have claimed up to 130 million Christians in China. However, most reliable estimates range from 40 million (3% of the total population) to 54 million (4%),<ref name="The World Factbook China"></ref><ref>Mark Ellis - [{{Reference archive|1=http://www.assistnews.net/STORIES/2007/s07100011.htm|2=2011-09-23}} China Survey Reveals Fewer Christians than Some Evangelicals Want to Believe] - Assist News, October 1, 2007</ref><ref>[{{Reference archive|1=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/6337627.stm|2=2011-09-23}} Survey finds 300m China believers] - BBC News, February 7, 2007</ref><ref>Jonathan Watts - [{{Reference archive|1=http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/feb/07/china.religion|2=2011-09-23}} Chinese survey finds religion booming] - The Guardian, February 7, 2007</ref> meaning the growth of Christianity in China is almost double that of Islam.

Worth noting is the fact that apostates will rarely advertise leaving Islam due to the death sentence it imposes on its followers, and that most Islamic countries do not acknowledge conversions out of Islam.